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The RBA raised rates twice in early 2026 (February and March), bringing the cash rate back to 4.10%. This reversed the three cuts made during 2025 that had briefly brought rates down to 3.60%. The 2025 easing cycle was short-lived as inflation proved more persistent than expected
Unlikely in this cycle. The RBA has signalled that the ultra-low rates of 2020–2022 were exceptional. The neutral rate is estimated at 3.0%–3.5%. Variable mortgage rates are expected to settle around 5.4%–5.9% once the cash rate reaches neutral.
Rate drops tend to increase property prices because more people can borrow more. Historically, waiting for lower rates has not consistently produced better purchasing outcomes. Buying now and budgeting at current rates is often the better strategy.
On a $600,000 loan, each 0.25% rate change adjusts monthly repayments by approximately $97. The two 2026 rises (0.50% total from the 3.60% trough) added roughly $194/month.
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