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The RBA Board meets on 16–17 June 2026 for its first decision following the May hike to 4.35%. After three consecutive increases totalling 0.75%, the Board faces a choice: press further into restrictive territory or pause to allow the cumulative impact to work through the economy.
The RBA Board meets on 16–17 June 2026. The rate decision is announced at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 17 June.
Market pricing suggests approximately 70% probability of a hold at 4.35% and around 20% probability of a fourth hike to 4.60%. A pause is most likely given the policy lags from three consecutive hikes.
The most critical releases are the April monthly CPI indicator (~28 May), April employment data (~14 May), Q1 Wage Price Index (mid-May), and Q1 GDP (early June).
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