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The RBA cash rate target is 4.35% following three consecutive 0.25% hikes in February, March, and May 2026. This fully reversed the easing that delivered three cuts during 2025 (February, May, and August), which had brought the rate down from 4.35% to 3.60%. The rate has now returned to the November 2023 peak
The next RBA meeting is 16–17 June 2026, with the decision announced at 2:30pm AEST on 17 June. After three consecutive hikes to 4.35%, a pause is the most likely outcome.
After three consecutive hikes to 4.35% (the November 2023 peak), most economists expect the RBA to pause at the June meeting. A fourth hike to 4.60% remains possible (~20% market probability) if inflation stays above 3.5%. The rate peak for this cycle is expected at either 4.35% or 4.60%.
The earliest plausible cut is late 2026 (September–December), but only if inflation data shows a sustained return toward the 2–3% target. The more likely scenario is that easing resumes in early-to-mid 2027. The RBA has been clear it will not cut prematurely after the 2025 experience.
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